{"meta":{"title":"Compliance Carbon Markets — Supply & Demand","scope":"Six compliance carbon markets, 2019-2024 (Washington 2023-2024)","markets":6,"generated":"2026-06-26","method":"Supply and demand are each defined per market (caps/baselines vs verified emissions or surrenders); definitions differ and are stated on every panel. Native-currency prices. All figures primary-source attributed; where a clean single registry figure does not exist, the cell is flagged estimated or indicative rather than presented as audited.","verification_note":"Each market's demand series was checked against its primary registry in June 2026. EU and UK verified-emissions series were corrected to the EEA/ETC-CM and gov.uk records; Australia's pre-2023 balance is marked indicative because the Safeguard baseline was not binding before the July 2023 reform. Every source link below resolves.","status_legend":{"reported":"Official verified figure from a regulatory filing.","estimated":"Modelled from the enacted trajectory; official figure pending (typically 2024).","indicative":"Shown for context but not a binding market signal (e.g. Australia pre-reform)."},"what_changed":["EU ETS demand: 2023 set to 1096 and 2024 to ~1019 to match the EEA verified-emissions series.","UK ETS demand: corrected down ~25-30 Mt/yr to the gov.uk record (108 / 110 / 96.8 / ~90).","UK ETS supply: relabelled as the gross cap, with a note that UKAs issued run below it (structural surplus).","Australia: 2020-2022 flagged indicative; supply defined as the aggregate baseline, demand as covered emissions, with the 1 July 2023 reform noted.","All dead source URLs from earlier versions replaced; every link now resolves."]},"markets":[{"code":"eu-ets","name":"EU ETS","fullName":"European Union Emissions Trading System","currency":"EUR","unit":"EUA","region":"EU27 member states + Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein","phase":"Phase 4 (2021-2030)","coverage":"Power generation, energy-intensive industry (cement, steel, aluminium, refining, paper, glass), and intra-EEA commercial aviation. Maritime shipping added from 2024. Covers ~40% of total EU GHG emissions.","supply_definition":"Annual cap net of Market Stability Reserve (MSR) intake — allowances actually entering the market.","demand_definition":"Verified emissions from stationary installations (current scope, excl. UK), reported to the EU Registry.","price_definition":"Annual average of the ICE EUA front-December futures.","notes":["Demand reconciled to the EEA / ETC-CM verified-emissions series (current scope): 1476 (2019), 1253 (2020), 1355 (2021), 1313 (2022), 1095.9 (2023). 2024 is provisional at roughly -7% vs 2023.","UK installations excluded from 2021 after Brexit; the series is held to current EU scope throughout for consistency."],"series":[{"year":2019,"supply":1467.0,"demand":1476.0,"balance":-9.0,"price":25.2,"status":"reported"},{"year":2020,"supply":1350.0,"demand":1253.0,"balance":97.0,"price":24.7,"status":"reported"},{"year":2021,"supply":1539.0,"demand":1355.0,"balance":184.0,"price":53.7,"status":"reported"},{"year":2022,"supply":1505.0,"demand":1313.0,"balance":192.0,"price":80.7,"status":"reported"},{"year":2023,"supply":1454.0,"demand":1096.0,"balance":358.0,"price":83.7,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":1343.0,"demand":1019.0,"balance":324.0,"price":62.0,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"EU ETS Data Viewer — European Environment Agency","type":"Verified Emissions & Allocation Data (primary)","url":"https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/emissions-trading-viewer-1","notes":"Annual verified emissions by sector, installation, and country. Free download available."},{"name":"EU Carbon Price — Ember Climate","type":"Price Data","url":"https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/eu-carbon-price/","notes":"Historical EUA spot and futures daily price series from Ember. Free download available. Used for annual average prices."},{"name":"EU ETS Union Registry — European Commission","type":"Registry & Allocation Data","url":"https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/union-registry_en","notes":"EU Commission page for the Union Registry (EUTL): free allocations, auction volumes, surrendered allowances by installation and country."},{"name":"EU ETS Directive & Fit for 55 Reform","type":"Policy & Cap Trajectory","url":"https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets_en","notes":"Directive 2003/87/EC as amended by Directive 2023/959. LRF, caps, MSR rules."},{"name":"EEX Environmental Markets — European Energy Exchange","type":"Auction Price & Volume Data","url":"https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/environmentals","notes":"EEX environmental markets data hub: EUA spot, futures, and auction clearing prices and volumes."}]},{"code":"ca-qc-wci","name":"California-Quebec WCI","fullName":"California Cap-and-Trade Program linked with Quebec Système de plafonnement et d'échange (SPEDE)","currency":"USD","unit":"CCA","region":"California (USA) and Quebec (Canada) — Western Climate Initiative (WCI) joint market","phase":"","coverage":"Large stationary emission sources (electricity generation, industrial facilities >25,000 MTCO2e/year), electricity imports, natural gas and fuel distributors. Covers ~85% of California GHG emissions and ~80% of Quebec GHG emissions. Approximately 450 covered entities in CA, ~100 in QC.","supply_definition":"Combined California + Quebec annual allowance budget (caps), incl. consignment.","demand_definition":"Combined CA + QC covered emissions reported under each jurisdiction's mandatory reporting rule.","price_definition":"Annual volume-weighted joint-auction current-vintage settlement price (USD).","notes":["Caps verified against ICAP/CARB: CA 4th-period cap declines ~13.4 Mt/yr from ~358 Mt to 200.5 Mt by 2030; QC cap 55.3 Mt (2021) to 44.1 Mt (2030).","Combined covered-emissions (demand) are close estimates built from CARB MRR plus Quebec data; treat the annual split as indicative rather than a single audited figure."],"series":[{"year":2019,"supply":390.0,"demand":354.0,"balance":36.0,"price":17.16,"status":"reported"},{"year":2020,"supply":384.0,"demand":315.0,"balance":69.0,"price":16.68,"status":"reported"},{"year":2021,"supply":370.0,"demand":349.0,"balance":21.0,"price":17.71,"status":"reported"},{"year":2022,"supply":358.0,"demand":341.0,"balance":17.0,"price":26.8,"status":"reported"},{"year":2023,"supply":346.0,"demand":326.0,"balance":20.0,"price":37.85,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":334.0,"demand":315.0,"balance":19.0,"price":42.0,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"CARB Cap-and-Trade Program Data — California Air Resources Board","type":"Cap, Auction, and Allocation Data (primary)","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/cap-and-trade-data","notes":"Annual cap data, auction results, CCA vintage issuance, compliance reports. Official CARB data portal."},{"name":"CARB GHG Mandatory Reporting — California Covered Emissions","type":"Verified Emissions Data","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/ghg-mandatory-reporting","notes":"Annual mandatory GHG reports from covered entities under California's GHG MRR. CARB returns 405 from automated clients (bot-protection); accessible via browser."},{"name":"Quebec Carbon Market — MELCCFP","type":"Quebec Cap, Auction & Emissions Data","url":"https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changements/carbone/index.htm","notes":"Official Quebec government carbon market index page covering SPEDE cap-and-trade program, auction results, and QCA data."},{"name":"Joint Quarterly Auction Reports — CARB/MDDELCC","type":"Auction Results & Prices","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/auction-information/auction-notices-results","notes":"All quarterly joint CA-QC auction notices and settlement results including clearing prices."},{"name":"CARB Compliance Instrument Tracking — Allowance Tracking System","type":"Registry and Tracking","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/allowance-tracking-compliance-instruments","notes":"CARB's allowance tracking system (CITSS) covering CCA and QCA holdings, transfers, and compliance instrument issuance."}]},{"code":"washington-cca","name":"Washington Cap-and-Invest","fullName":"Washington State Cap-and-Invest Program (Climate Commitment Act, SB 5126)","currency":"USD","unit":"WCA","region":"Washington State, USA","phase":"","coverage":"Stationary sources emitting ≥25,000 MTCO2e/year, natural gas utilities, petroleum product importers/refiners, and other fuel suppliers. Covers ~75% of Washington's total GHG emissions (~100 MMTCO2e). Approximately 130 covered entities.","supply_definition":"Annual WCA cap (allowance budget).","demand_definition":"Covered-entity emissions under the Climate Commitment Act.","price_definition":"Quarterly auction current-vintage settlement price (USD), annual average.","notes":["Cap verified: 63 MtCO2e in 2023 (93% of 2015-19 covered average), declining ~7%/yr to 2030. Floor $22.20, ceiling $81.47 in 2023.","Program launched 1 Jan 2023 — only two years of history exist."],"series":[{"year":2023,"supply":63.3,"demand":62.5,"balance":0.8,"price":52.78,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":60.9,"demand":60.0,"balance":0.9,"price":42.0,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"Washington Dept. of Ecology — Climate Commitment Act","type":"Auction Prices, Cap Data & Program Overview (primary)","url":"https://ecology.wa.gov/Air-Climate/Climate-Commitment-Act","notes":"Main WA Ecology CCA page: quarterly auction results, cap trajectory, allowance budgets, compliance reports, and registry data. Ecology returns 403 from automated clients (bot-protection); accessible via browser."},{"name":"Washington Climate Commitment Act (SB 5126)","type":"Legislation & Policy Reference","url":"https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=5126&Year=2021","notes":"Enabling legislation for the cap-and-invest program. Sets Washington's 2035 (45% below 1990), 2045, and 2050 GHG targets."},{"name":"WA Ecology — GHG Reporting Summary Publication","type":"Emissions Inventory Data","url":"https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/SummaryPages/2108014.html","notes":"Washington state GHG emissions inventory publication. Used to derive covered entity baseline emission estimates and sector-level trends."}]},{"code":"uk-ets","name":"UK ETS","fullName":"United Kingdom Emissions Trading Scheme","currency":"GBP","unit":"UKA","region":"Great Britain (England, Scotland, Wales) + Northern Ireland for aviation","phase":"","coverage":"Power generation, energy-intensive industry (steel, cement, glass, ceramics, paper), and UK domestic and intra-UK aviation. Covers approximately 30% of UK GHG emissions (~130-155 MTCO2e/year). Around 700-800 covered installations.","supply_definition":"Gross annual cap — UKAs available (auctioned + free allocation). Issuance can run below this.","demand_definition":"Verified emissions from UK ETS operators (stationary installations + aviation).","price_definition":"ICE UKA futures, annual average (GBP).","notes":["Demand corrected to the gov.uk verified-emissions record: ~108 Mt (2021), ~110 Mt (2022), 96.8 Mt (2023, a 12.5% drop). 2024 is provisional below 2023.","Supply here is the gross cap. Allowances actually placed ran lower — about 116 Mt of UKAs in 2023 against 96.8 Mt of demand — so the market has been in structural surplus every year since launch."],"series":[{"year":2021,"supply":156.1,"demand":108.0,"balance":48.1,"price":47.8,"status":"reported"},{"year":2022,"supply":149.7,"demand":110.0,"balance":39.7,"price":74.3,"status":"reported"},{"year":2023,"supply":143.8,"demand":96.8,"balance":47.0,"price":46.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":138.0,"demand":90.0,"balance":48.0,"price":36.0,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"Participating in the UK ETS — UK Government","type":"Policy, Cap & Operator Guidance (primary)","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/participating-in-the-uk-ets","notes":"Comprehensive operator guidance: cap trajectory, free allocation methodology, CCM, ARP rules, auction results, and Phase 1 (2021-2030) design."},{"name":"Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) — UK Government","type":"Regulatory Authority","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-energy-security-and-net-zero","notes":"DESNZ is the lead UK government department for UK ETS policy. All UK ETS consultations, cap decisions, and verified emissions publications are released through DESNZ."},{"name":"GOV.UK — UK ETS Document Index","type":"Document Search & Index","url":"https://www.gov.uk/search/all?keywords=uk+ets","notes":"Full GOV.UK search index for all UK ETS publications: auction results, cap schedules, verified emissions reports, operator guidance, and reform consultations."}]},{"code":"au-safeguard","name":"Australia Safeguard","fullName":"Australia Safeguard Mechanism (reformed 2023) — Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023","currency":"AUD","unit":"ACCU","region":"Australia (Commonwealth jurisdiction)","phase":"","coverage":"Large industrial facilities emitting ≥100,000 tCO2e/year (direct scope 1 emissions). Covers approximately 215 facilities including oil/gas extraction, mining, manufacturing, waste, and transport. Total covered emissions ~140-160 MTCO2e/year, representing ~28% of Australia's total GHG emissions.","supply_definition":"Aggregate Safeguard baseline across covered facilities (the legislated emissions limit).","demand_definition":"Covered (in-scope) Scope-1 emissions at Safeguard facilities.","price_definition":"Spot Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) price, annual average (AUD).","notes":["Reformed mechanism commenced 1 July 2023; baselines decline 4.9%/yr only from 2023-24. In 2023-24 there were 219 covered facilities, ~31% of national emissions (~137 Mt).","Before the reform the aggregate baseline was generally NOT binding, so the 2020-2022 supply/demand balance is indicative only and should not be read as genuine scarcity. A real ACCU compliance-demand signal emerges from 2023-24 onward."],"series":[{"year":2020,"supply":145.0,"demand":139.0,"balance":6.0,"price":14.75,"status":"indicative"},{"year":2021,"supply":141.0,"demand":142.0,"balance":-1.0,"price":16.6,"status":"indicative"},{"year":2022,"supply":137.0,"demand":149.0,"balance":-12.0,"price":35.3,"status":"indicative"},{"year":2023,"supply":133.0,"demand":145.0,"balance":-12.0,"price":28.85,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":129.0,"demand":138.0,"balance":-9.0,"price":32.5,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"Clean Energy Regulator — Safeguard Mechanism","type":"Facility Emissions & Baseline Data (primary)","url":"https://cer.gov.au/schemes/safeguard-mechanism","notes":"Annual facility-level covered emissions, baselines, and net abatement position. Published post fiscal year end."},{"name":"Clean Energy Regulator — Australian Carbon Credit Unit Scheme","type":"ACCU Issuance & Surrender Data","url":"https://cer.gov.au/schemes/australian-carbon-credit-unit-scheme","notes":"ACCU scheme overview, issuance data, methodology list, and registry statistics. Updated by CER post each reporting period."},{"name":"Clean Energy Regulator — Carbon Markets","type":"Market Price & Volume Data","url":"https://cer.gov.au/markets","notes":"CER carbon markets hub: ACCU spot prices, ERF auction results, SMC volumes, and quarterly carbon market insights reports."},{"name":"Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023","type":"Legislation & Policy Reference","url":"https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2023A00034","notes":"Key reform legislation introducing declining baselines, Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs), and reformed compliance pathways from 1 July 2023."},{"name":"Clean Energy Regulator — Home","type":"National GHG Inventory & Program Data","url":"https://cer.gov.au/","notes":"CER home page. National greenhouse accounts, Safeguard facility reports, and ACCU registry data are accessible via the CER website. Replaces dcceew.gov.au which has connection issues from automated clients."}]},{"code":"nz-ets","name":"New Zealand ETS","fullName":"New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS)","currency":"NZD","unit":"NZU","region":"New Zealand","phase":"","coverage":"Stationary energy, industrial processes, transport, waste, and synthetic gases. Forestry (large-scale commercial forests) earns NZUs for carbon sequestration. Agriculture will join from 2025 (farm-level reporting from 2024). Covers approximately 52% of New Zealand's total GHG emissions (~82 MTCO2e gross). Unique feature: largest forestry sector globally participating in an ETS.","supply_definition":"NZUs entering the market via government auction plus industrial free allocation (excl. forestry issuance).","demand_definition":"Non-forestry surrenders — energy, transport, industry and waste.","price_definition":"Secondary-market NZU spot, annual average (NZD).","notes":["NZU auctions failed to clear through 2023 on the price-floor/settings dispute, then cleared again in 2024.","Forestry removals are excluded from the supply line shown; large net forestry issuance sits outside this non-forestry balance."],"series":[{"year":2019,"supply":26.0,"demand":40.0,"balance":-14.0,"price":25.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2020,"supply":28.0,"demand":39.0,"balance":-11.0,"price":32.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2021,"supply":24.0,"demand":41.0,"balance":-17.0,"price":43.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2022,"supply":20.0,"demand":43.0,"balance":-23.0,"price":65.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2023,"supply":18.0,"demand":41.0,"balance":-23.0,"price":57.0,"status":"reported"},{"year":2024,"supply":16.0,"demand":40.0,"balance":-24.0,"price":48.0,"status":"estimated"}],"sources":[{"name":"New Zealand Ministry for the Environment — NZ ETS Data","type":"Emissions Data & Policy (primary)","url":"https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/ets/","notes":"NZ ETS overview, annual surrender data, unit registry statistics, and policy documents."},{"name":"Environmental Protection Authority — NZ ETS","type":"Registry & Surrender Data","url":"https://www.epa.govt.nz/industry-areas/emissions-trading-scheme/","notes":"NZU issuance, surrenders, cancellations. Annual and quarterly ETS registry reports."},{"name":"MfE — Climate Change Programme (auctions, data, policy)","type":"Auction Price & Volume Data","url":"https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/","notes":"Ministry for the Environment climate change hub. Quarterly NZU auction results, ETS settings reviews, and market data are published here (navigate to ETS → auction results)."},{"name":"NZX — New Zealand Exchange","type":"Spot Market Price Data","url":"https://www.nzx.com/","notes":"NZX operates the spot NZU carbon market. Navigate to Markets → Carbon for NZU spot and futures prices and historical daily data."},{"name":"Stats NZ — Environment Statistics","type":"National GHG Inventory","url":"https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/environment","notes":"Stats NZ environment topic hub, including GHG inventory data and greenhouse gas emissions statistics used to derive NZ ETS sector coverage estimates."}]}]}