{"meta":{"title":"Voluntary Carbon Market - Supply & Demand (corrected, sourced foundation)","scope":"Global VCM across the ten largest standards (ACR, ART, BioCarbon, CAR, CDM, Cercarbono, GCC, Gold Standard, Plan Vivo, VCS)","years":[2020,2021,2022,2023,2024],"generated":"2026-06-26","supply_definition":"Gross credit issuances (MtCO2e).","demand_definition":"Credit retirements (MtCO2e) - the standard proxy for end-user demand.","method":"Re-sourced from published market reports (see sources). Restructured from the original 6-region x 6-type grid to the level the public record supports: GLOBAL totals by year, supply by PROJECT CATEGORY and HOST geography, demand by BUYER region, prices by CATEGORY. Annual figures are approximate and source-attributed; ranges shown where providers disagree.","divergence_note":"There is no single authoritative VCM data source. Issuance/retirement totals differ materially (10-40%) across Ecosystem Marketplace, MSCI Carbon Markets, BloombergNEF and Carbon Direct because they track different standard-sets and define 'transaction' vs 'retirement' differently. Treat all totals as indicative.","what_changed_vs_original":["GEOGRAPHY FIXED: supply no longer attributed to US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia/Mexico (buyer geographies). Supply is global, by category, with Global-South host geography. Those 6 regions are retained only on the DEMAND side.","DEMAND CORRECTED: retirements plateau at ~175-182 Mt (2021-24) (corrected; earlier drafts understated 2024 retirements).","PRICES SPLIT BY CATEGORY: replaces the single blended series; captures the removals-vs-reductions premium and per-category levels.","RENEWABLE ENERGY downgraded: large ongoing RE supply is not realistic (delisted post-2019; share heading to ~2%).","REMOVALS ADDED: engineered/durable CDR (DAC, biochar, ERW) included as a distinct nascent, premium category.","PROVENANCE ADDED: every series now carries source IDs; estimates flagged.","REGULATORY LAYER ADDED (Jun 2026): ICVCM CCP status, Article 6.4/PACM (COP30), CDM closure, CORSIA Phase 1 demand, EU claims ban - the demand-side drivers, each sourced."],"regulatory_asof":"2026-06-26"},"global_by_year":[{"year":2020,"issuance_mt":225,"retirement_mt":95,"avg_price_usd":2.5,"estimate":"approx","note":"Pre-plateau; retirements well below issuance (oversupply builds).","src":["CarbonDirect-VROD","EM-SOVCM-2024"]},{"year":2021,"issuance_mt":300,"retirement_mt":170,"avg_price_usd":6.8,"estimate":"approx","note":"Issuance PEAK (~300 Mt, Carbon Direct/VROD). Retirements step up to the ~175-180 plateau.","src":["CarbonDirect-VROD","EM-SOVCM-2025"]},{"year":2022,"issuance_mt":255,"retirement_mt":178,"avg_price_usd":7.4,"estimate":"approx","note":"Prices peak; integrity scrutiny begins late-year.","src":["MSCI-2023","EM-SOVCM-2024"]},{"year":2023,"issuance_mt":210,"retirement_mt":178,"avg_price_usd":6.53,"estimate":"approx","note":"Issuance -25% YoY, lowest in 3 yrs (MSCI); REDD+ & renewable drop-off. Avg price $6.53 (EM).","src":["MSCI-2023","EM-SOVCM-2024"]},{"year":2024,"issuance_mt_low":190,"issuance_mt_high":276,"retirement_mt":182,"avg_price_usd":6.34,"estimate":"range","note":"SOURCES DIVERGE on issuance: ~190 Mt (+12%, MSCI/Regreener) vs ~276 Mt (-13%, MSCI synthesis). Retirements ~180-182 Mt (EM) - PLATEAUED, not declining. Avg $6.34, volume-weighted incl. legacy cheap credits.","src":["EM-SOVCM-2025","MSCI-2024","Regreener-2025"]}],"supply_by_category_2024":[{"category":"Forestry & Land Use (incl. REDD+, ARR, IFM)","retirement_share_pct":"largest single block","trend":"REDD+ transaction volume -52% in 2024; IFM grew >3x; ARR/agroforestry/blue carbon premium-priced","host":"Brazil, Peru, Colombia, DRC, Indonesia (REDD+); China (ARR)","src":["EM-SOVCM-2025","Regreener-2025","Viridios-2024"]},{"category":"Renewable Energy","retirement_share_pct":"declining","trend":"Historic share >25%; projected toward ~2% over the decade. Most grid-renewable methodologies were rejected by ICVCM (Aug 2024), though CDM grid-renewables may re-enter compliance demand via the Article 6.4 PACM transition.","host":"India, China","src":["ICVCM-2026","PACM-transition","Regreener-2025","Viridios-2024"]},{"category":"Household / Community Devices (cookstoves)","retirement_share_pct":"rising; most-retired type in 2024","trend":"Increased share of retired offsets; strong registration growth","host":"India, Sub-Saharan Africa","src":["EM-SOVCM-2025","Viridios-2024"]},{"category":"Waste Disposal / Landfill Gas","retirement_share_pct":"rising","trend":"Transaction volume grew >3x in 2024, driven by CCP-approved landfill gas; price +35% H1->H2","host":"Global","src":["EM-SOVCM-2025"]},{"category":"Engineered & durable removals (DAC, biochar, ERW)","retirement_share_pct":"<1% (nascent)","trend":"Cumulative CDR purchases still <16 Mt; fastest-growing, highest-priced segment","host":"Global (Puro.earth, Isometric)","src":["Regreener-2025"]}],"demand_by_region":[{"region":"North America","share_pct_2024":37.5,"basis":"measured","src":["MSCI-2024"]},{"region":"Europe","share_pct_2024":"~25-30 (est.)","basis":"estimated","src":[]},{"region":"Rest of world (Asia-Pacific, LatAm, etc.)","share_pct_2024":"remainder","basis":"estimated","src":[]}],"prices_by_category_2024":[{"category":"All credits (volume-weighted avg)","usd_per_t":6.34,"src":["EM-SOVCM-2025"]},{"category":"Nature restoration (ARR)","usd_per_t":14,"src":["Regreener-2025"]},{"category":"NBS offtake (recent, high-integrity)","usd_per_t":">20","src":["Regreener-2025"]},{"category":"Energy efficiency","usd_per_t":5.8,"src":["Regreener-2025"]},{"category":"REDD+ (avoidance)","usd_per_t":2.7,"src":["Regreener-2025"]},{"category":"Removals vs reductions","usd_per_t":"removals +381% premium (2024); +245% (2023)","src":["EM-removal-premium"]},{"category":"Corporate ICVCM-screened pool","usd_per_t":"EUR 20-200 (by methodology)","src":["Senken-MaxPlanck"]},{"category":"Durable removals (2030 view)","usd_per_t":"biochar >EUR150; DAC/ERW >EUR250","src":["Senken-MaxPlanck"]}],"key_facts":["Retirements (end-user demand) have PLATEAUED at ~175-182 Mt/yr for four consecutive years (2021-2024). [EM-SOVCM-2025]","Issuance peaked ~300 Mt in 2021, fell ~25% in 2023 (3-year low); 2024 estimates diverge by source from ~190 Mt to ~276 Mt - there is 'no good source'. [MSCI-2023, MSCI-2024, CarbonDirect-VROD]","Avoidance credits (wind + REDD+) made up 58% of 2024 retirements; Verra alone = 63% of retirements. [Regreener-2025]","Removal credits carried a 381% price premium over reduction credits in 2024 (245% in 2023) - a single blended price series hides this. [EM-removal-premium]","A 2024 Max Planck/Nature study found only ~16% of issued credits represent genuine reductions; legacy/low-rated credits pull registry-wide averages down. [Senken-MaxPlanck]","Supply originates in the GLOBAL SOUTH (Brazil/Peru/Colombia/DRC/Indonesia forestry; India/China renewables & ARR; India/Africa cookstoves). Demand is GLOBAL NORTH (North America ~37.5% of the market in 2024). [Viridios-2024, MSCI-2024]","Regulatory inflection (2025-26): ICVCM has now CCP-approved 43 methodologies (~98% of volume from eligible programs); the Article 6.4 PACM was operationalised at COP30 with the CDM closing end-2026; CORSIA Phase 1 (2024-26) adds 146-236 Mt of aviation demand; and the EU bans generic 'climate neutral' claims from Sept 2026. [ICVCM-2026, COP30-Art6, CORSIA-ICAO, EU-ECGT]"],"sources":[{"id":"EM-SOVCM-2025","name":"Ecosystem Marketplace, State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2025","note":"Retirements ~180-182 Mt 2024; plateau 2021-24; avg price $6.34 (2024); category trends; tracks 10 largest standards."},{"id":"EM-SOVCM-2024","name":"Ecosystem Marketplace, State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024","note":"Avg price $6.53/t 2023; REDD+ & renewable drop-off drove 2023 contraction; 28% of transactions co-benefit-certified."},{"id":"MSCI-2023","name":"MSCI Carbon Markets, 2023 Year in Review","note":"2023 issuance -25% YoY, lowest in 3 yrs; nature-based & renewable lowest issuance in 5/4 yrs; record monthly retirements."},{"id":"MSCI-2024","name":"MSCI Carbon Markets, 2024/2025 Year in Review","note":"2024 issuance figures (sources diverge: ~190 Mt per one read, ~276 Mt per another); 43% of 2024 retirements from low-rated projects."},{"id":"CarbonDirect-VROD","name":"Carbon Direct, State of the VCM (Voluntary Registry Offsets Database)","note":"Issuances reached ~300 Mt/yr in 2021 (peak)."},{"id":"Regreener-2025","name":"Regreener VCM update (synthesizing MSCI 2025)","note":"2024: issuance +12% vs 2023 (>190 Mt); retirements ~176 Mt; avoidance (wind+REDD+)=58% of retirements; Verra=63%; RE share >25%->~2%; restoration $14, EE $5.80, REDD+ $2.70, NBS offtake >$20."},{"id":"Senken-MaxPlanck","name":"Senken / Probst et al. (Nature Communications, 2024, Max Planck)","note":"~16% of issued credits represent genuine reductions; corporate ICVCM-screened pool EUR 20-200/t; 2030 view: biochar >EUR150, DAC/ERW >EUR250, NBS avoidance PACM host-approval deadline extended to June 2026; ~980M CERs eligible to transition, only ~128M (13%) approved to date; first A6.4ERs expected 2026, mostly grid-renewable transitions."},{"id":"CORSIA-ICAO","name":"ICAO CORSIA / IATA forecast (Aug 2025)","note":"Phase 1 = 2024-2026 compliance; airlines offset growth above 85% of 2019 emissions; Phase 1 demand forecast 146-236 Mt; supply-constrained; PACM not yet CORSIA-eligible (ICAO TAB review pending)."},{"id":"EU-ECGT","name":"EU Empowering Consumers for the Green Transition Directive (2024/825)","note":"Bans generic 'climate neutral' / offset-based marketing claims from September 2026."}],"regulatory_drivers":[{"area":"ICVCM / Core Carbon Principles (supply-side integrity)","status":"Active - 43 methodologies CCP-approved (of 161 assessed), May 2026","detail":"Programs covering ~98% of market volume are CCP-Eligible. Cookstoves conditionally approved (fNRB <0.5 via MoFuSS); REDD+ VM0048 approved while older REDD+ and most grid-renewable methodologies were rejected.","effect":"Bifurcating the market: CCP-labelled credits command a premium; rejected/legacy credits trade at a discount and face retirement headwinds.","src":["ICVCM-2026"]},{"area":"Article 6.4 / Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM)","status":"Operationalised - foundational standards adopted at COP30 (Nov 2025)","detail":"COP29 (2024) established PACM; COP30 adopted baselines, additionality, leakage and non-permanence standards. First A6.4ERs expected to issue in 2026, initially from transitioning CDM grid-renewable projects.","effect":"Creates a parallel UN-governed compliance-grade supply stream; integrity scrutiny is high because the first units are ICVCM-rejected methodologies.","src":["COP30-Art6","PACM-transition"]},{"area":"CDM wind-down","status":"Closing end-2026 (confirmed at COP30)","detail":"CDM->PACM host-approval deadline extended to June 2026. ~980M CERs are eligible to transition; only ~128M (13%) approved so far.","effect":"A potentially large legacy-supply influx into PACM - mostly older renewables - that could pressure prices if it clears.","src":["PACM-transition","COP30-Art6"]},{"area":"CORSIA (international aviation compliance demand)","status":"Phase 1 compliance period 2024-2026, underway","detail":"Airlines offset emissions growth above 85% of 2019 levels. IATA (Aug 2025) forecasts Phase 1 demand of 146-236 Mt. Supply is constrained by the scarcity of host-country-authorised units; PACM units are not yet CORSIA-eligible (ICAO TAB review pending).","effect":"A compliance demand anchor that competes with voluntary buyers for the limited pool of Article 6-authorised credits.","src":["CORSIA-ICAO"]},{"area":"EU Empowering Consumers Directive (demand-side claims)","status":"Enters force September 2026","detail":"Bans generic 'climate neutral' and offset-based marketing claims across the EU.","effect":"Dampens 'offset-to-neutral' demand and pushes corporate buyers toward CCP-screened credits and contribution-claim framing (VCMI Claims Code).","src":["EU-ECGT"]}]}