Supply & Demand

North American RPS & clean-energy demand.

A 43-jurisdiction supply-demand model for renewable portfolio and clean-energy standards across the US and Canada — load, REC obligation, eligible supply, the cross-border eligibility map, and REC-price scenarios, 2024–2045.

Jurisdictions

33 US (incl. DC) + 10 Canadian provinces

Interconnections

WECC, MISO, PJM, NPCC, SERC, ERCOT, Canada

~1,080 TWh

2026 RPS demand (US)

Across all active programs

3,532 TWh

2045 target supply

NA renewables (base case)

$10.95/MWh

2026 avg CA PCC1

Nodal Exchange, Feb 2026

$85/MWh

NJ SREC 2026

Flett Exchange, Jan 2026

64 GW/yr

2030 NA build

Solar + Wind + BESS additions

North America: REC supply vs. RPS obligation

Eligible renewable generation is outpacing mandated obligation in aggregate — the surplus is regional, not uniform (see the interconnect balance below).

NA REC SupplyNA RPS Obligation

REC price forecast (base case)

Compliance-instrument forwards by market. Anchored to Nodal Exchange / Flett marks; bull and bear bands available in the model.

DC SRECMA SREC-IINJ SRECMD SRECVA SRECPA SRECPJM Tier 1MA Class INY Class ICA PCC1CA PCC3

Supply–demand balance by interconnect

Where the surplus actually sits. A long aggregate can still hide a tight state — PJM and NPCC bind earliest.

Interconnect (REC supply − RPS demand)	2026	2032	2040
WECC	+105 TWh130% met	+205 TWh148% met	+356 TWh170% met
MISO	+36 TWh116% met	+74 TWh126% met	+120 TWh131% met
PJM	-60 TWh76% met	+18 TWh106% met	+199 TWh147% met
NPCC	+216 TWh252% met	+278 TWh250% met	+386 TWh258% met

Jurisdiction index

All 43 programs with statutory target, 2026 obligation level and the alternative-compliance payment ceiling.

Jurisdiction	Grid	Program	Statutory target	2026 oblig.	ACP
United States
California	WECC	SB 100 / SB 1020	100% by 2045	49%	$50
New York	NPCC/NYISO	CLCPA	70% by 2030; 100% CES by 2040	38%	$10-$20
Illinois	MISO	CEJA (2021)	50% by 2040	24%	$15
Michigan	MISO	PA 235 (2023)	60% by 2035; 100% clean 2040	20%	$20
Minnesota	MISO	NextGen Energy Act (2023)	80% carbon-free by 2030; 100% by 2040	40%	$50
Colorado	WECC	SB19-236 (2019)	100% by 2050; 80% by 2030	40%	$20
Nevada	WECC	SB 358 (2019)	50% by 2030	36%	$50
New Mexico	WECC	Energy Transition Act (2019)	80% by 2040; 100% by 2045	37%	$50
Washington	WECC	CETA (2019)	100% GHG-neutral by 2030; 100% clean by 2045	53%	$10
Oregon	WECC	HB 2021 (2021)	100% by 2040	43%	$25
Montana	WECC	SB 123 (repealed 2021)	15% by 2015 (RPS repealed 2021)	20%	$10
Idaho	WECC	Voluntary	No mandated RPS	—	—
Utah	WECC	HB 203	20% by 2025 (voluntary/met)	20%	—
Arizona	WECC	ACC Rulemaking	15% by 2025 (ACC, met)	15%	$50
Massachusetts	NPCC/ISO-NE	RPS / GWSA	35% Class I by 2030 (+1%/yr after)	26%	$85-$110
Connecticut	NPCC/ISO-NE	PA 18-50 (2018)	40% by 2030	22%	$55
Rhode Island	NPCC/ISO-NE	RES (2022)	100% by 2033	27%	$50
Vermont	NPCC/ISO-NE	RES / Act 179 (2024)	100% by 2030 (GMP, VEC) / 2035 (others)	63%	$25
Maine	NPCC/ISO-NE	LD 1679 (2019)	80% by 2030	52%	$50
New Hampshire	NPCC/ISO-NE	RSA 362-F	25.2% by 2025	25%	$55
Maryland	PJM	RPS (2004)	50% by 2030	20%	$40
New Jersey	PJM	NJCEP / Solar Act 2021	50% by 2030 (Class I); 11,000 MW OSW by 2040	35%	$50-$200 SREC
Delaware	PJM	REPSA (2005, am. 2021)	40% by 2035	15%	$25
Pennsylvania	PJM	AEPS (2004)	8% Tier I by 2021 (met; weak)	8%	$2-$5
Ohio	PJM	HB 6 (2019)	8.5% by 2026 (sunsets after 2026)	8.5%	$10
Virginia	PJM/SERC	VCEA (2020)	100% by 2045 (IOUs)	12%	$30
North Carolina	SERC	REPS (2007)	12.5% by 2021 (investor-owned)	12%	$12
Texas	ERCOT	SB 7 (1999)	10,000 MW (met); voluntary REC	32%	$0-$2
Iowa	MISO/SPP	SF 367 (1983)	105 MW mandate (met)	60%	$0
Wisconsin	MISO	Act 141	10% by 2015 (met)	12%	$10
Missouri	MISO/SPP	Prop C (2008)	15% by 2021 (met)	11%	$50
Hawaii	HECO	HRS 269-92	100% by 2045	45%	$50
DC	PJM	RPS (DC)	100% by 2032	59%	$400 SREC
Canada
British Columbia	AESO/WECC	Clean Energy Act (2024 update)	100% clean by 2030 (integrated grid)	99%	N/A
Alberta	AESO	Renewable Electricity Act (2020)	30% RE by 2030 (legislated target)	28%	n/a (no compliance market)
Ontario	IESO	LT2 Procurement (2024)	Up to 14 TWh new RE by 2030	38%	N/A
Quebec	HQ	Loi sur Hydro-Quebec	100%+ hydro; +8 TWh wind	99%	N/A
Manitoba	Manitoba Hydro	Clean Energy Mandate	97%+ clean	97%	N/A
Saskatchewan	SaskPower	Integrated Resource Plan (2023)	50% RE by 2030	26%	C$40
Nova Scotia	NSUARB	Renewable Electricity Plan	80% by 2030	54%	C$30
New Brunswick	NBSO	Electricity from Renewable Resources Reg.	40% renewable (met 2019; ~44% now)	44%	C$20
Prince Edward Island	Maritimes/NB grid	Renewable Energy Act	100% by 2035	100%	N/A
Newfoundland & Labrador	NL Power	Muskrat Falls + Wind	94%+ clean	95%	N/A

Cross-border REC eligibility

Which supply can satisfy which market — the constraint that makes a long interconnect irrelevant to a short state next door.

Supply → Demand	CA	NY	IL	MI	MN	CO	WA	OR	MA	CT	RI	MD	NJ	VA	TX	AB
CA Solar	✓	×	✓	×	×	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
NV Solar	✓	×	✓	×	×	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
OR Wind	✓	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
WA Wind	✓	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
MT Wind	~	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
TX Wind	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
IA Wind	×	×	✓	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
MN Wind	×	×	✓	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
QC Hydro	×	~	×	×	×	×	×	×	II	II	×	×	×	×	·	×
BC Hydro	~	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
NS/NB Wind	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	×	×	×	·	×
NY Wind	×	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	×	✓	×	·	×
NE Wind	×	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	×	✓	×	·	×
ON Wind	×	~	×	~	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	·	×
NJ Offshore	×	✓	×	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	×	·	×
VA Offshore	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×	✓	✓	✓	·	×

✓ Eligible II Class II only ~ Partial / conditional × Not eligible · N/A (voluntary)

Methodology & sources

Annual obligation is RPS % target × retail load; compliance cost is obligation × REC price; the supply–demand gap is eligible supply less obligation, filtered through the eligibility matrix. Values interpolate linearly between anchor years 2024 · 2028 · 2032 · 2036 · 2040 · 2045. Full formula documentation and per-tier detail ship in the spreadsheet.

Federal context (2026): Federal backdrop (2026): state RPS/CES statutory targets are unchanged, but the federal incentives that historically supported compliance have shifted. The 2025 federal budget reconciliation law accelerated the phase-out of clean-energy production and investment tax credits (PTC/ITC), and federal offshore-wind permitting and approvals were curtailed - raising REC/compliance costs and pressuring offshore-wind-linked targets such as New Jersey's 11,000 MW. EIA notes RPS success depends in part on federal tax credits. (Sources: EIA; C2ES; 2025-26.)

NCSL RPS State Policy DatabaseDSIREEIA AEO 2025NERC LTRANodal ExchangeNRCan / CERSaskPower IRP 2023NS UARB Clean Electricity Plan

Download the model (.xlsx) Raw data (JSON)

Data vintage 2025-2026 · generated 2026-06-19 · last reviewed 2026-07-06 · free, no account needed