Supply & Demand
Issuance versus retirements across the ten largest standards, 2020–2024, with prices by category, the removals premium, and the host-versus-buyer geography that defines the market — rebuilt on the published record, sourced line by line.
Read this first. There is no single authoritative VCM data source. Issuance/retirement totals differ materially (10-40%) across Ecosystem Marketplace, MSCI Carbon Markets, BloombergNEF and Carbon Direct because they track different standard-sets and define 'transaction' vs 'retirement' differently. Treat all totals as indicative.
Supply (gross issuances) has run well above demand (retirements) every year — the VCM's persistent oversupply. Note the demand plateau at ~175–182 Mt since 2021, and that 2024 issuance is a range (~190–276 Mt); the midpoint is plotted.
Volume-weighted across every transacted credit, so legacy and low-rated credits pull it down. The corporate, ICVCM-screened pool prices far higher — see the category table below.
The single average hides the market's defining split: removal credits carried a 381% premium over reduction credits in 2024. Premium/forward levels are shaded.
| Credit category (2024) | Price ($/tCO2e) |
|---|---|
| All credits (volume-weighted avg) | $6.34 |
| Nature restoration (ARR) | $14.00 |
| NBS offtake (recent, high-integrity) | >20 |
| Energy efficiency | $5.80 |
| REDD+ (avoidance) | $2.70 |
| Removals vs reductions | removals +381% premium (2024); +245% (2023) |
| Corporate ICVCM-screened pool | EUR 20-200 (by methodology) |
| Durable removals (2030 view) | biochar >EUR150; DAC/ERW >EUR250 |
Where credits are actually issued — overwhelmingly the Global South. REDD+ is contracting; improved forest management, landfill gas and cookstoves are growing; renewable-energy credits are on their way out.
| Project category | 2024 share | Trend | Host geography (where issued) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forestry & Land Use (incl. REDD+, ARR, IFM) | largest single block | REDD+ transaction volume -52% in 2024; IFM grew >3x; ARR/agroforestry/blue carbon premium-priced | Brazil, Peru, Colombia, DRC, Indonesia (REDD+); China (ARR) |
| Renewable Energy | declining | Historic share >25%; projected toward ~2% over the decade. Most grid-renewable methodologies were rejected by ICVCM (Aug 2024), though CDM grid-renewables may re-enter compliance demand via the Article 6.4 PACM transition. | India, China |
| Household / Community Devices (cookstoves) | rising; most-retired type in 2024 | Increased share of retired offsets; strong registration growth | India, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Waste Disposal / Landfill Gas | rising | Transaction volume grew >3x in 2024, driven by CCP-approved landfill gas; price +35% H1->H2 | Global |
| Engineered & durable removals (DAC, biochar, ERW) | <1% (nascent) | Cumulative CDR purchases still <16 Mt; fastest-growing, highest-priced segment | Global (Puro.earth, Isometric) |
Where credits are retired. Only North America's share is hard-sourced; the rest is flagged as estimated rather than fabricated.
| Buyer region | Share of demand (2024) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| North America | 37.5% | measured |
| Europe | ~25-30 (est.) | estimated |
| Rest of world (Asia-Pacific, LatAm, etc.) | remainder | estimated |
What actually moves this market now: supply-side integrity (ICVCM / CCP), the new UN compliance mechanism (Article 6.4 / PACM and the CDM wind-down), aviation demand (CORSIA), and the EU claims rules. Current as of 2026-06-26.
Programs covering ~98% of market volume are CCP-Eligible. Cookstoves conditionally approved (fNRB <0.5 via MoFuSS); REDD+ VM0048 approved while older REDD+ and most grid-renewable methodologies were rejected.
Effect: Bifurcating the market: CCP-labelled credits command a premium; rejected/legacy credits trade at a discount and face retirement headwinds.
COP29 (2024) established PACM; COP30 adopted baselines, additionality, leakage and non-permanence standards. First A6.4ERs expected to issue in 2026, initially from transitioning CDM grid-renewable projects.
Effect: Creates a parallel UN-governed compliance-grade supply stream; integrity scrutiny is high because the first units are ICVCM-rejected methodologies.
CDM->PACM host-approval deadline extended to June 2026. ~980M CERs are eligible to transition; only ~128M (13%) approved so far.
Effect: A potentially large legacy-supply influx into PACM - mostly older renewables - that could pressure prices if it clears.
Airlines offset emissions growth above 85% of 2019 levels. IATA (Aug 2025) forecasts Phase 1 demand of 146-236 Mt. Supply is constrained by the scarcity of host-country-authorised units; PACM units are not yet CORSIA-eligible (ICAO TAB review pending).
Effect: A compliance demand anchor that competes with voluntary buyers for the limited pool of Article 6-authorised credits.
Bans generic 'climate neutral' and offset-based marketing claims across the EU.
Effect: Dampens 'offset-to-neutral' demand and pushes corporate buyers toward CCP-screened credits and contribution-claim framing (VCMI Claims Code).
Supply = gross credit issuances; demand = retirements, the standard proxy for end-user demand. Figures are approximate and source-attributed; where providers diverge, a range is shown. Re-sourced from published market reports (see sources). Restructured from the original 6-region x 6-type grid to the level the public record supports: GLOBAL totals by year, supply by PROJECT CATEGORY and HOST geography, demand by BUYER region, prices by CATEGORY. Annual figures are approximate and source-attributed; ranges shown where providers disagree.
Rebuilt from the original upload:
Scope: Global VCM across the ten largest standards (ACR, ART, BioCarbon, CAR, CDM, Cercarbono, GCC, Gold Standard, Plan Vivo, VCS) · generated 2026-06-26 · free, no account needed